IF YOU SAY SOMETHING'S "LIKELY," HOW LIKELY IS IT?

The Hawk & Tom Show

October 7, 2020
The Hawk & Tom Show
Categories: 



If I said you'll "probably" like this story, what are the actual ODDS I'm putting on it?  It turns out the answer is . . . about a 70% chance.

Someone gave people a list of terms we all use to describe how likely things are.  Like, "maybe" . . . "might happen" . . . or "probably will."  Here are ten terms, and what the average person means when they say them..

 

1.  "Almost certain" . . . it means we think there's an 80% chance it will happen.

2.  "Probably" . . . 70% chance it'll happen.

3.  "Likely" . . . 67%.

4.  "More likely than not" . . . 62%.

5.  "Possibly" . . . 54%.

6.  "50/50 chance" . . . 50%.

7.  "Outside chance" . . . 35%.

8.  "Probably won't" . . . 31%.

9.  "Unlikely" . . . 29%.

10.  "Very unlikely" . . . 24%. 

 

 

(YouGov)